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ConsciousnessLearn · Explore · Joseph Anady

Expected revenue from lead value and closing probability

The equation scales lead value L by the closing probability P_c. For a nonnegative L and a probability between zero and one, the product ranges from zero when a close is impossible to L when a close is certain. A probability has no monetary unit, so ER retains the…

MADDIE conversion framework / detailed postersource graphic; not an execution result
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poster-eq-8648f3b74d21d3mathematical expression
ER=L×PcER = L × P_c

Read the equation

The equation scales lead value L by the closing probability P_c. For a nonnegative L and a probability between zero and one, the product ranges from zero when a close is impossible to L when a close is certain. A probability has no monetary unit, so ER retains the value unit used for L. The poster also defines L as a probability-weighted outcome sum. It does not specify whether those outcomes are conditional on closing, and that distinction matters when applying a separate closing probability.

Its role in the build

The MADDIE Equation — Client Conversion Formula

Terms & definitions

TermMeaning in this source
ER

Expected revenue as named by the poster.

L

Lead value, defined elsewhere on the poster by a sum of outcome values weighted by outcome probabilities.

P_c

Probability of closing, represented by a separate formula on the poster.

×

Ordinary multiplication of lead value by closing probability.

How it works

  1. Specify what the lead value L includes and whether it is conditional on a successful close.

  2. Use the closing probability P_c for the same lead and outcome definition.

  3. Multiply L by P_c, retaining the value unit of L.

Assumptions & limits

  • The source provides no measured lead values or closing probabilities with which to evaluate the expression.

  • The conditioning of the outcome probabilities inside L is unspecified; applying P_c again requires care if L already includes the chance of not closing.

Original context

Read the surrounding source passage
The MADDIE Equation — Client Conversion Formula: Multiplies lead value by closing probability.
Exact original notation
ER = L × P_c

Related builds

Sources & provenance

01
The Maddie Equation: Client Conversion Formula.png
Bottom strip EXPECTED REVENUE (ER); verified transcript lines 120–126 · Jul 15, 2026
ER = L × P_c

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